The S&P 500 and NAS 100 have kicked off the week cautiously; additionally, there is speculation on future movements. The retail sector, fueled by Black Friday and Cyber Monday, is thriving. Moreover, Amazon and Walmart are leading the charge with 1.0% and 0.4% gains, respectively. Furthermore, the overall market sentiment remains positive.
The retail sector’s outstanding 2023 performance, boasting a 34% increase, contrasts with the S&P Index’s 19% uptick. Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales estimates hover between $12 billion to $12.4 billion, a pivotal factor that could trigger a short-term selloff if unmet.
Examining the SPX heatmap, today has seen a mix of red and grey tiles, signaling a less-than-optimal day, particularly for the Tech sector, fluctuating between marginal losses and gains.
Market sentiment hinges on upcoming US data, earnings reports, and Federal Reserve speakers. A potential fresh year-to-date high above 4600 for the SPX awaits cues from Fed policy and crucial data points influencing the probability of rate cuts in 2024.
This week’s earnings calendar is robust, featuring reports from ZScaler, Crowdstrike, Synopsys, and Salesforce, each with the potential to impact US indices differently.
Turning to the technical outlook, the NASDAQ 100, after four consecutive weeks of gains, has breached the 16000 mark. However, with the RSI in overbought territory, a retracement may be imminent. Immediate support rests at 15950, with potential lower levels at 15800, 15500, and 15300.
The S&P 500, following a similar trajectory, eyes the elusive 4600 mark for a fresh year-to-date high. Asset managers project a year-end target of 5000, contingent on a potentially more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve in December. Positive comments from the White House regarding lower prices on various items add to the optimistic outlook.
Key support levels for the SPX include 4500, 4460, and 4400, while potential resistance lies at 4600, 4640, and 4700. The technical picture suggests a bullish continuation, evidenced by recent golden cross patterns. However, a pre-PCE data pullback may occur as market participants cautiously prepare for the release.
Conclusion:
In summary, the market landscape is dynamic, with retail resilience and pivotal indicators shaping trends. Stay tuned for real-time insights.
